DRC: Diplomatic deadlock over M23 advance
The Nairobi meeting on the crisis in the east of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) did not take place. The reason: the growing incompatibility between Félix Tshisekedi and Paul Kagame, who now refuse any direct dialogue. The initiative of the East African Community (EAC) therefore remained meaningless, as the main protagonists did not show up.
On the diplomatic front, the situation remains blocked. While Rwanda’s involvement in the conflict is now recognized, neither the UN nor major Western powers are taking firm measures to stop the escalation. Only Germany suspended, on January 28, 2025, its discussions with Kigali over development aid, demanding the withdrawal of Rwandan forces and the M23 from eastern DRC.
Meanwhile, Rwanda is now acting openly. The special envoy for the Great Lakes region, Vincent Karega, clearly stated that the M23’s advance toward South Kivu was inevitable: “They will continue into South Kivu because Goma cannot be an end in itself, unless it negotiates with the Kinshasa government. Which I doubt”. This statement, seemingly coming directly from Paul Kagame, confirms Rwanda’s ambitions in the region.
The scenario recalls the events of 1997, when Kigali supported the Alliance of Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Congo (AFDL) led by Laurent-Désiré Kabila to overthrow Mobutu Sese Seko. Is Rwanda now seeking to replicate this strategy with the M23 as a Trojan horse ?
In the meantime, the battle for Goma has already claimed more than 100 lives and left nearly a thousand injured. The population, victims of rape, looting, and food shortages, is enduring a true ordeal. And nothing suggests an improvement in the security situation.
Will the international community finally act to enforce a ceasefire? Unless Paul Kagame, after his “productive” meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, finally sees reason.
