Trump and Harris neck and neck, swing states at the heart of the battle

As the American presidential election approaches, the race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is intensifying, with every vote becoming crucial. The candidates are ramping up their rallies and mutual attacks: Trump recently gathered his supporters at Madison Square Garden, while Harris campaigned with Beyoncé in Texas. Controversies abound, particularly regarding Trump’s alleged sympathies for Adolf Hitler and his stance on Puerto Rico.

Polls are extremely tight. One week before the election, Harris leads by a slim margin nationwide, with 49% of voter intentions compared to 48% for Trump, according to the aggregate from the New York Times and FiveThirtyEight. Harris’s lead has narrowed since August, as Trump has recorded a notable 2-point increase in October, bringing him back into the race. However, national polls are only part of the equation. In the U.S., the election is decided in a handful of key states, where each candidate aims to reach the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House.

In the so-called “swing states,” the situation is even more tense. Trump and Harris are neck and neck in Nevada and Pennsylvania, each with 48%. In Wisconsin and Michigan, Harris holds a slight edge (49% to 48% in Wisconsin, 48% to 47% in Michigan). In Georgia and Arizona, Trump leads narrowly with 49% compared to 48% for Harris. North Carolina remains unpredictable, with voter intentions constantly shifting between the two candidates; today, Trump leads by one point (49% to 48%).

These extremely narrow margins, combined with the margin of error in polling, make the outcome uncertain. In 2020, pollsters underestimated Trump’s support, reminding us that nothing is settled until election day. For Harris and Trump, everything will hinge on these decisive states, where voter engagement could tip the balance.